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Northern areas face increased risks of glacial lake outburst floods, while plains may see worsening smog and air pollution due to cooler, drier air.
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan is gearing up for what could turn out to be one of its coldest winters in decades, as the La Niña climate pattern begins to set in, promising a season of plunging temperatures, erratic rainfall, and renewed hardship for flood-hit communities.
According to a report compiled by the Intersector Coordination Group in collaboration with UN partners, the La Niña phenomenon—caused by an abnormal cooling of Pacific Ocean surface waters—has already begun to bring about global weather disruptions. In Pakistan, it is likely to set off a series of climate extremes, from dry spells in the north to cold snaps and storms in the south.
The UN-OCHA forecast for October warns that the combined negative phases of the El Niño Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole will play out across Pakistan, driving uneven rainfall. Northern Punjab, KP, AJK, and GB may go through below-normal rainfall, while Sindh, Balochistan, and southern Punjab could see off near-normal precipitation.
These shifts could mess up Kharif crop harvesting and slow down Rabi sowing. Stagnant floodwaters in some districts continue to give rise to mosquito-borne diseases like dengue and malaria, while poor drainage systems add to the risk of waterborne outbreaks such as cholera and typhoid.
The report also points out that many humanitarian agencies have run out of pre-positioned relief stocks and emergency funds. Local partners are now calling for additional support to keep up with growing needs as they move on from crisis response to early recovery.
A separate FAO assessment shows that floodwaters wiped out around 1.2 million hectares of farmland in Punjab, damaging rice, cotton, and sugarcane crops. The losses have set back food security goals and cut off vital income sources for farmers.
With over 229,000 homes still damaged, families are holding out in makeshift shelters with little protection against the coming chill. As winter closes in, experts warn that Pakistan must brace for a tough few months—where cold, hunger, and disease could team up to test its resilience once again.
